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사범대학
과학교육과
Journal papers
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MJO Influence on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction in the Northern Hemisphere Extratropics
Title
MJO Influence on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction in the Northern Hemisphere Extratropics
Authors
Kim
;
Hera
;
Son
;
Seok-Woo
;
Hyemi
;
Seo
;
Kyong-Hwan
;
Kang
;
Min-Jee
Ewha Authors
김혜미
SCOPUS Author ID
김혜미
Issue Date
2023
Journal Title
Journal of Climate
ISSN
0894-8755
Citation
Journal of Climate vol. 36, no. 22, pp. 7943 - 7956
Keywords
Hindcasts
;
Madden-Julian oscillation
;
Operational forecasting
;
Subseasonal variability
;
Teleconnections
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Indexed
SCIE; SCOPUS
Document Type
Article
Abstract
The impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics are examined using the reforecasts from the S2S Project and Subseasonal Experiment Project (SubX). When forecasts are initialized during an active MJO, extratropical prediction skill becomes significantly higher at 3–4-week windows compared to inactive MJO. Such prediction skill improvement is evident in the 500-hPa geopotential height over the Pacific–North America region and the North Atlantic and in surface temperature over North America, especially when the model is initialized during the MJO phases 6–7 and 8–1. However, the extratropical prediction skill is not modulated by the MJO phases 2–3 and 4–5. This phase dependency is likely determined by the arrival time of the MJO at the Maritime Continent (MC) barrier that substantially enhances the MJO amplitude error. This result suggests that only MJO phases whose convection lies east of the MC are a source of wintertime S2S predictability in the extratropics. © 2023 American Meteorological Society.
DOI
10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0139.1
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