Economics of long jump: Growth trajectories of South Korea, Japan, and China, and lessons to emerging economies

Abstract

No country can achieve perpetual growth; hence, economic progress often mirrors a long jump in which the initial take-off is inherently unsustainable. As rapid growth decelerates, the pivotal factor is how growth stabilizes. Based on linear, quadratic, and non-linear regression analyses using the World Bank's World Development Indicator, this study empirically examines the growth patterns of three East Asian economies (South Korea, Japan, and China) over six decades and finds that they all exhibit a right-skewed growth pattern, reflecting the time lag between growth momentum and the actual increase in income levels. Among these three countries, the Korean data describes the full spectrum of the "long jump" pattern, Japan showcases mainly the right descending phase on the graph, and China is still on the left ascending phase and is about to reveal the long-tail skewness of the slow-down. This examination provides lessons for emerging economies in South and Southeast Asia with full growth momentum. Policy implications, particularly for immigration, will follow to derive solutions for sustaining growth and deterring slow-downs. (c) 2025 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of College of Management, National Cheng Kung University. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).