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Development of Interpretable Probability Ellipse in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts Using Multiple Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems
- Title
- Development of Interpretable Probability Ellipse in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts Using Multiple Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems
- Authors
- Yoo; Seungwoo; Ho; Chang-Hoi
- Ewha Authors
- 허창회
- SCOPUS Author ID
- 허창회
- Issue Date
- 2024
- Journal Title
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- ISSN
- 2169-897X
- Citation
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres vol. 129, no. 4
- Keywords
- ensemble prediction; forecast uncertainty; probability ellipse; track forecast; tropical cyclone
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons Inc
- Indexed
- SCIE; SCOPUS
- Document Type
- Article
- Abstract
- Most tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting centers have implemented a probabilistic circle to represent track uncertainty at a specified lead time. Recent studies suggest that probability ellipses constructed from ensemble prediction systems can convey the anisotropy of track predictability. In this study, a new probability ellipse model is developed to interpret the extent of forward speed and heading uncertainties in ensemble forecasts by selecting an equal proportion of members in the along- and cross-track directions. This method is validated using the 2019–2021 western North Pacific (WNP) TC track forecasts from the ensemble predictions of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and the Korea Meteorological Administration. When the proportion of ensemble members in the ellipse is set to 70%, more than one-half (50.0%–73.6%) of the forecasts, depending on the lead time, indicate reduced area compared with that of the circle. The mean areas of the probability ellipses are 4.9%, 7.0%, 10.0%, and 11.5% smaller than those of the circle in 48-, 72-, 96-, and 120-hr forecasts, respectively. The forward speed shows greater uncertainty than the heading, as evidenced by the along-track radii being larger than the cross-track counterpart in ∼60% of the samples, regardless of the lead time. In addition, the regional distribution of the along-track/cross-track ratio in the probability ellipses can explain the dominant direction of the track error in a particular location. The proposed probability ellipse shows potential for application in operational TC track predictions. © 2024 The Authors.
- DOI
- 10.1029/2023JD039295
- Appears in Collections:
- 공과대학 > 기후에너지시스템공학과 > Journal papers
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