Is Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication as Effective as Vaccination for Preventing Virus Diffusion? Measuring the Impacts of Failure in CERC with MERS-CoV Outbreak in South Korea

Abstract

This study measured the impacts of failure in Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) during the outbreak of a contagious Corona viral disease. The study measured the impacts by the number of individuals and hospitals exposed to the virus. The 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak in South Korea was used to investigate the consequences of CERC failure, where the names of hospitals exposed to MERS-CoV were withheld from the public during the early stage of virus diffusion. Empirical data analyses and simulated model tests were conducted. The findings of analyses and tests show that an early announcement of the hospital names and publicizing the necessary preventive measures could have reduced the rate of infection by approximately 85% and the number of contaminated healthcare facilities by 39% at maximum. This level of reduction is comparable to that of vaccination and of social distancing. © 2021 Society for Risk Analysis.