Effect of Error in SO2 Slant Column Density on the Accuracy of SO2 Transport Flow Rate Estimates Based on GEMS Synthetic Radiances

Abstract

This study investigates the uncertainties associated with estimates of the long-range transport SO2 (LRT-SO2) flow rate calculated hourly using Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) synthetic radiances. These radiances were simulated over the Korean Peninsula and the surrounding regions using inputs from the GEOS-Chem model for January, April, July, and October 2016. The LRT-SO2 calculation method, which requires SO2 vertical column densities, wind data, and planetary boundary layer information, was used to quantify the effects of the SO2 slant column density (SCD) retrieval error and uncertainties in wind data on the accuracy of the LRT-SO2 estimates. The effects were estimated for simulations of three anthropogenic and three volcanic SO2 transport events. When there were no errors in the GEMS SO2 SCD and wind data, the average true LRT-SO2 flow rates (standard deviation) and those calculated for these events were 1.17 (+/- 0.44) and 1.21 (+/- 0.44) Mg/h, respectively. However, the averages of the true LRT-SO2 flow rates and those calculated for the three anthropogenic (volcanic) SO2 events were 0.61 (1.17) and 0.64 (1.20) Mg/h, respectively, in the presence of GEMS SO2 SCD errors. In the presence of both errors in the GEMS SO2 SCD and wind data, the averages of the true LRT-SO2 flow rates and those calculated for the three anthropogenic (volcanic) SO2 events were 0.61 (1.17) and 0.61 (1.04) Mg/h, respectively. This corresponds to differences of 2.1% to 23.1% between the simulated and true mean LRT-SO2 flow rates. The mean correlation coefficient (R), intercept, and slope between the true and simulated LRT-SO2 flow rates were 0.51, 0.43, and 0.45 for the six simulated events, respectively. This study demonstrates that SO2 SCD accuracy is an important factor in improving estimates of LRT-SO2 flow rates.