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공과대학
기후에너지시스템공학과
Journal papers
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Probabilistic modeling of wind energy potential for power grid expansion planning
Title
Probabilistic modeling of wind energy potential for power grid expansion planning
Authors
Kim G.
;
Hur J.
Ewha Authors
허진
SCOPUS Author ID
허진
Issue Date
2021
Journal Title
Energy
ISSN
0360-5442
Citation
Energy vol. 230
Keywords
Capacity factor
;
Grid expansion planning
;
Monte Carlo simulation
;
Probabilistic model
;
Weibull distribution
;
Wind energy potential
Publisher
Elsevier Ltd
Indexed
SCIE; SCOPUS
Document Type
Article
Abstract
The increasing integration of wind energy generation into energy systems has led to difficulties in power flow calculations due to uncertainty and variability, which significantly affect the stability and reliability of power grids. Consequently, it is critical to evaluate the energy security limit of power grids based on probabilistic approaches. In this paper, we propose the probabilistic modeling of wind energy potential for power grid expansion planning. The proposed probabilistic model estimates wind energy potential through Weibull distribution, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), and the enhanced spatial modeling based on universal kriging. It can be used to establish the expansion plan for transmission and distribution facilities to resolve the variability and uncertainty issues of wind generation resources, which is expected to increase the penetration levels of renewable energy. To validate the proposed model, the empirical data from the Jeju Island's wind farms are considered in South Korea. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd
DOI
10.1016/j.energy.2021.120831
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