국제수지 흑자하에서의 물가안정을 위한 통화관리정책

Abstract

본 논문의 목적은 국제수지 흑자 경제하에서의 통화관리정책을 우리 경제의 실정에 맞는 대책을 모색하여 방향을 제시하는데 있다. 따라서 통화관리정책은 실물경제의 움직임에 맞추어 통화를 신축적으로 공급하면서도 자금배분의 효율을 높이는데 역점을 두고 운용되고 있다는 전제하에서, 우리나라의 국민경제가 적자경제에서 흑자경제로 전환됨에 따라, 안정적 성장을 지속하기 위해서 해외부문에서의 통화증발 흡수책으로, 어떤 정책적 방안이 강구되어야 하느냐에 역점을 두었다. 본론에서는 국제수지, 통화량, 물가와의 관계를 이론적인 면에서 간략히 보고, 우리의 경제현황(1981년-1987년)을 국제수지현황, 통화량 그리고 물가를 중심으로 살펴보았다. 다음으로 선진국들의 흑자시 통화관리정책을 살펴보고, 우리의 현실에 비교하여 적절한 우리에 맞는 대응정책을 제시하고 있다. 그 결과 부문별 통화환수정책을 보면, 금융정책은 수출산업 및 수입대체산업에 대한 금융지원을 억제함으로써, 경상수지 흑자로 인한 해외부문의 통화공급을 다른 부분에서 중화시키는 것이다. 재정정책면에서는 거시적 균형을 위한 통화정책과 재정정책의 운영 개선을 통하여, 국민의 다양한 복지욕구를 합리적으로 수용하는 가운데서도, 총재정수지의 적자를 축소하고 재정운용의 능률을 한층 제고시켜야 할 것이다. 무역정책은 경상수지 흑자추이를 감안한 점진적인 수입관세율인하와 수입개방을 통하여, 대미통상마찰을 완화하고 나아가서 원화절상압력에 대해서도 탄력적으로 대응하여야 할 것이다. 끝으로 외환정책을 보면 경상수지 흑자확대를 외채의 원금상환촉진 신규 자본도입억제 등을 통해 자본수지적자로 중화시킴으로써, 종합수지 흑자폭을 최대한 줄이는 방안과 총외채 규모가 일정수준으로 축소되어, 원리금 상환 부담이 줄어든 경우 해외투자와 연불수출의 확 대로 자본수출을 적극 추진하는 방안이다.;The goal of this study is to indicate a direction for a monetary policy, which can fit for the actual economic conditions of Korea, under an economy with international trade surplus. Accordingly under the assumption that the monetary policy is being operated focused on the in creasing the efficiency of capital distribution(or allocation), by elastically controling the money stock according to the movements in real sectors, and as our economy moved from trade deficit to trade surplus, the study was focus on the question that "what kinds of policy measures Should be taken?" as a method for adsorbing the money or capital-fly in international sectors, if we intend to continue a stable growth in our economy. As the main subject, the relation between international trade balance (deficit or surplus), money stock(or quantity) & price of goods was shortly reviewed from a theoretical perspective, and focused on the current situation of our international trade balance, money stock & price-trend, our economy's current situation(1981-1987) was reviewed and examined. And the monetary policies taken by the developed nations in case of international trade surplus were examined, and by comparing them with the actual conditions of our economy, appropriate policy measures were presented for the purpose of efficiently coping with the situation. Based on the matters mentioned above, following results could be considered as the policy to withdraw the money stock from each sector; As far as the monetary policy is concerned, money supply to international sectors, which came from our international trade surplus, should our neutralized in other sectors of the economy, by restraining a monetary (or financial) aid to the export-industries & import substitution-industries. As far as the financial policy is concerned, operation of monetary & financial policies should be improved so that the macroeconomic-equilibrium should be achieved, accordingly various wealth-demands of our people should be met rationally, and among them especially deficits in total financial budget should be decreased and the efficiency of financial operation should be enhanced further. As far as the trade policy is concerned, by taking the current trend of international trade surplus into consideration, trade frictions with U.S.A. should be mitigated through the reductions in import tariff rates & through opening the import-markets, also the pressure on the appreciation (or evaluation) of "Won" currency against the "$" should be elastically coped with. Finally as foreign exchange-policy is concerned, expansion of current trade surplus should be neutralized through the reimbursement of foreign debts at an earlier stage or through restraining the inflow of new capitals, consequently this policy will be able to minimize our trade surplus. And in case that the burden of reinbursing the principal of foreign debts is decreased because the size of total foreign debts is decreased to a certain level, exports of capital, through foreign investments or expansion of deferred-payment exports, should be actively pushed forward.