A model for cascading failures with the probability of failure described as a logistic function

Abstract

In most cascading failure models in networks, overloaded nodes are assumed to fail and are removed from the network. However, this is not always the case due to network mitigation measures. Considering the effects of these mitigating measures, we propose a new cascading failure model that describes the probability that an overloaded node fails as a logistic function. By performing numerical simulations of cascading failures on Barabási and Albert (BA) scale-free networks and a real airport network, we compare the results of our model and the established model describing the probability of failure as a linear function. The simulation results show that the difference in the robustness of the two models depends on the initial load distribution and the redistribution of load. We further investigate the conditions of our new model under which the network exhibits the strongest robustness in terms of the load distribution and the network topology. We find the optimal value for the parameter of the load distribution and demonstrate that the robustness of the network improves as the average degree increases. The results regarding the optimal load distribution are verified by theoretical analysis. This work can be used to develop effective mitigation measures and design networks that are robust to cascading failure phenomena. © 2022, The Author(s).