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Productivity Forecasting of Newly Added Workers Based on Time-Series Analysis and Site Learning
- Title
- Productivity Forecasting of Newly Added Workers Based on Time-Series Analysis and Site Learning
- Authors
- Kim, Hyunsoo; Lee, Hyun-Soo; Park, Moonseo; Ahn, Changbum R.; Hwang, Sungjoo
- Ewha Authors
- 황성주
- SCOPUS Author ID
- 황성주
- Issue Date
- 2015
- Journal Title
- JOURNAL OF CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
- ISSN
- 0733-9364
1943-7862
- Citation
- JOURNAL OF CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT vol. 141, no. 9
- Keywords
- Productivity forecasting; Site-learning effect; Time-series analysis; Schedule delay; Quantitative methods
- Publisher
- ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS
- Indexed
- SCIE; SCOPUS
- Document Type
- Article
- Abstract
- Adding new laborers during construction is usually considered the easiest option to execute when a schedule delay occurs in a construction project. However, determining the proper number of new laborers to add is quite challenging because newly added laborers' short-term productivity for their first several production cycles could be significantly different from that of existing laborers. While existing studies suggest that newly added laborers' site-learning may cause such a difference, this process has not been considered when forecasting newly added laborers' short-term productivity. In this context, this study presents a method that takes into account site-learning effects and the periodic characteristics of newly added laborers' short-term productivity. The periodic characteristics of productivity are analyzed based on a time-series model of existing laborers' productivity. Then, the impact of the site-learning effect on the productivity is considered based on existing learning-effect theory. An illustrative example demonstrates the accuracy and usefulness of the presented method. Its results indicate that the consideration of the site-learning effect prevents the frequent and counterproductive underestimation of the required number of newly added laborers in establishing an accelerated recovery schedule. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
- DOI
- 10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001002
- Appears in Collections:
- 공과대학 > 건축도시시스템공학과 > Journal papers
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