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Three regime bivariate normal distribution: a new estimation method for co-value-at-risk, CoVaR
- Title
- Three regime bivariate normal distribution: a new estimation method for co-value-at-risk, CoVaR
- Authors
- Choi, Ji-Eun; Shin, Dong Wan
- Ewha Authors
- 신동완
- SCOPUS Author ID
- 신동완
- Issue Date
- 2019
- Journal Title
- EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF FINANCE
- ISSN
- 1351-847X
1466-4364
- Citation
- EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF FINANCE vol. 25, no. 18, pp. 1817 - 1833
- Keywords
- Asymmetric correlation; CoVaR; delta-CoVaR; quasi maximum likelihood; systemic risk; contagion
- Publisher
- ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR &
FRANCIS LTD
- Indexed
- SSCI; SCOPUS
- Document Type
- Article
- Abstract
- We propose a new distribution for estimation of co-value-at-risk, CoVaR, a financial system risk measure conditional on an institution in a financial distress: a three regime bivariate normal (3RN) distribution which is composed of three bivariate normal distributions with asymmetric variance matrices for the right-tail, left-tail and mid-part corresponding to the return of an institution. The distribution captures explicitly the asymmetric correlation of system return and institution return: usually stronger for bad times than for good times. The 3RN distribution allows simple evaluations of the CoVaR taking full advantage of asymmetric correlation. An implementation for the quasi maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) is provided. The proposed estimation method is applied to stock price data sets consisting of one financial system and four financial institutions: the US S&P 500 index, Bank of America Corporation, JP Morgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and Citigroup Inc. The data analysis shows that the proposed method has better in-sample and out-of-sample violation performance than existing methods and some other possible candidates.
- DOI
- 10.1080/1351847X.2019.1639208
- Appears in Collections:
- 자연과학대학 > 통계학전공 > Journal papers
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