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Subseasonal Prediction of Wintertime East Asian Temperature Based on Atmospheric Teleconnections

Title
Subseasonal Prediction of Wintertime East Asian Temperature Based on Atmospheric Teleconnections
Authors
Yoo, ChanghyunJohnson, Nathaniel C.Chang, Chueh-HsinFeldstein, Steven B.Kim, Young-Ha
Ewha Authors
유창현
SCOPUS Author ID
유창현scopus
Issue Date
2018
Journal Title
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN
0894-8755JCR Link

1520-0442JCR Link
Citation
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE vol. 31, no. 22, pp. 9351 - 9366
Keywords
TeleconnectionsStatistical forecasting
Publisher
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
Indexed
SCIE; SCOPUS WOS
Document Type
Article
Abstract
A composite-based statistical model utilizing Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns is developed to predict East Asian wintertime surface air temperature for lead times out to 6 weeks. The level of prediction is determined by using the Heidke skill score. The prediction skill of the statistical model is compared with that of hindcast simulations by a climate model, Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5. When employed individually, three teleconnections (i.e., the east Atlantic/western Russian, Scandinavian, and polar/Eurasian teleconnection patterns) are found to provide skillful predictions for lead times beyond 4-5 weeks. When information from the teleconnections and the long-term linear trend are combined, the statistical model outperforms the climate model for lead times beyond 3 weeks, especially during those times when the teleconnections are in their active phases.
DOI
10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0811.1
Appears in Collections:
일반대학원 > 대기과학공학과 > Journal papers
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