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Subseasonal Prediction of Wintertime East Asian Temperature Based on Atmospheric Teleconnections
- Subseasonal Prediction of Wintertime East Asian Temperature Based on Atmospheric Teleconnections
- Yoo, Changhyun; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Chang, Chueh-Hsin; Feldstein, Steven B.; Kim, Young-Ha
- Ewha Authors
- SCOPUS Author ID
- Issue Date
- Journal Title
- JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
- JOURNAL OF CLIMATE vol. 31, no. 22, pp. 9351 - 9366
- Teleconnections; Statistical forecasting
- AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
- SCI; SCIE; SCOPUS
- Document Type
- A composite-based statistical model utilizing Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns is developed to predict East Asian wintertime surface air temperature for lead times out to 6 weeks. The level of prediction is determined by using the Heidke skill score. The prediction skill of the statistical model is compared with that of hindcast simulations by a climate model, Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5. When employed individually, three teleconnections (i.e., the east Atlantic/western Russian, Scandinavian, and polar/Eurasian teleconnection patterns) are found to provide skillful predictions for lead times beyond 4-5 weeks. When information from the teleconnections and the long-term linear trend are combined, the statistical model outperforms the climate model for lead times beyond 3 weeks, especially during those times when the teleconnections are in their active phases.
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