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Value at risk forecasting for volatility index

Title
Value at risk forecasting for volatility index
Authors
Park, Seul-KiChoi, Ji-EunShin, Dong Wan
Ewha Authors
신동완
SCOPUS Author ID
신동완scopus
Issue Date
2017
Journal Title
APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS
ISSN
1350-4851JCR Link

1466-4291JCR Link
Citation
APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS vol. 24, no. 21, pp. 1613 - 1620
Keywords
Conditional heteroscedasticityHAR modellong-memoryskew-t distributionVaRvolatility index
Publisher
ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR &

FRANCIS LTD
Indexed
SSCI; SCOPUS WOS scopus
Document Type
Article
Abstract
Forecasts of values at risk (VaRs) are made for volatility indices such as the VIX for the US S&P 500 index, the VKOSPI for the KOSPI (Korea Stock Price Index) and the OVX (oil volatility index) for crude oil funds, which is the first in the literature. In the forecasts, dominant features of the volatility indices are addressed: long memory, conditional heteroscedasticity, asymmetry and fat-tails. An out-of-sample comparison of the VaR forecasts is made in terms of violation probabilities, showing better performance of the proposed method than several competing methods which consider the features differently from ours. The proposed method is composed of heterogeneous autoregressive model for the mean, GARCH model for the volatility and skew-t distribution for the error.
DOI
10.1080/13504851.2017.1366631
Appears in Collections:
자연과학대학 > 통계학전공 > Journal papers
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