A new kernel for long-run variance estimates in seasonal time series models

Abstract

A new kernel for estimating long-run variances of stationary seasonal time series is proposed. The proposed kernel has an oscillating pattern which is in harmony with that of the autocovariance functions of seasonal time series. A Monte-Carlo experiment shows that the estimator based on the proposed kernel outperforms estimators based on existing kernels such as the Bartlett kernel, Parzen kernel, and Turkey-Hanning kernel for two typical monthly time series processes with moderate autocorrelations. © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.