View : 13 Download: 0

Forecasting phenology under global warming

Title
Forecasting phenology under global warming
Authors
Ibanez I.Primack R.B.Miller-Rushing A.J.Ellwood E.Higuchi H.Lee S.D.Kobori H.Silander J.A.
Ewha Authors
이상돈
SCOPUS Author ID
이상돈scopus
Issue Date
2010
Journal Title
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
ISSN
0962-8436JCR Link
Citation
vol. 365, no. 1555, pp. 3247 - 3260
Indexed
SCI; SCIE; SCOPUS WOS scopus
Abstract
As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953-2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology. © 2010 The Royal Society.
DOI
10.1098/rstb.2010.0120
Appears in Collections:
엘텍공과대학 > 환경공학전공 > Journal papers
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Export
RIS (EndNote)
XLS (Excel)
XML


qrcode

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

BROWSE