Processes Driving the Intermodel Spread of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Circulation Expansion in CMIP6 Models

Abstract

The Hadley circulation (HC) has been expanding poleward in recent decades. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models predict that the expansion will accelerate in the future, more so in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). However, the extent of the expansion varies widely among the models. We investigate the mechanisms driving the intermodel spread in SH HC expansion predictions. The intermodel spread is obtained by an empirical orthogonal function analysis on the SH HC trend patterns of 16 CMIP6 model simulations using the historical and shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 scenarios. The leading mode, showing a mean meridional stream function anomaly at the poleward SH HC extent, explains 49.73% of the variance and significantly correlates (r = 0.94) with the SH HC expansion. By analyzing the extended Kuo-Eliassen equation, we find that the intermodel difference in the representation of diabatic heating is responsible for about 14% of the intermodel spread. The meridional eddy momentum and heat fluxes contribute to about 21% and 18% of the intermodel spread, respectively. The models simulating a relatively large SH HC expansion tend to show increased precipitation in the Southern Pacific Convergence Zone, reduced baroclinic instability in the subtropics, and an enhanced poleward shift of jet stream in the midlatitudes. This suggests that the uncertainty in the HC projection may be constrained by reducing the bias in the trend of the mean fields. © 2024 The Author(s).