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Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement
- Title
- Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement
- Authors
- Domingo; Nina G.G.; Fiore; Arlene M.; Lamarque; Jean-Francois; Kinney; Patrick L.; Jiang; Leiwen; Gasparrini; Antonio; Breitner; Susanne; Lavigne; Eric; Madureira; Joana; Masselot; Pierre; Silva; Susana das Neves Pereira da; Sheng Ng; Chris Fook; Kyselý; Jan; Guo; Yuming; Tong; Ho; Lee; Whanhee; Tobias; Aurelio; Íñiguez; Carmen; Forsberg; Bertil; Åström; Christofer; Ragettli; Martina S.; Yue Leon; Pan; Shih-Chun; Colistro; Valentina; Bell; Michelle; Zanobetti; Antonella; Schwartz; Joel; Shilu; Kan; Haidong; Urban; Aleš; Orru; Hans; Maasikmets; Marek; Pascal; Mathilde; Katsouyanni; Klea; Samoli; Evangelia; Scortichini; Matteo; Stafoggia; Massimo; Hashizume; Masahiro; Alahmad; Barrak; Diaz; Magali Hurtado; De la Cruz Valencia; César; Scovronick; Noah; Garland; Rebecca M.; Kim; Schneider; Alexandra; Vicedo-Cabrera; Ana M.; Chen; Kai
- Ewha Authors
- 이환희
- SCOPUS Author ID
- 이환희
- Issue Date
- 2024
- Journal Title
- One Earth
- ISSN
- 2590-3330
- Citation
- One Earth vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 325 - 335
- Keywords
- acute excess mortality; bias correction; climate change; CMIP6; Ozone; Paris Agreement; projection; shared socioeconomic pathways; short-term exposure
- Publisher
- Cell Press
- Indexed
- SCIE; SSCI; SCOPUS
- Document Type
- Article
- Abstract
- Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate. © 2024 Elsevier Inc.
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.001
- Appears in Collections:
- 의과대학 > 의학과 > Journal papers
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