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dc.contributor.advisor오만숙-
dc.contributor.author오하린-
dc.creator오하린-
dc.date.accessioned2016-08-26T04:08:41Z-
dc.date.available2016-08-26T04:08:41Z-
dc.date.issued2015-
dc.identifier.otherOAK-000000116173-
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.ewha.ac.kr/handle/2015.oak/213310-
dc.identifier.urihttp://dcollection.ewha.ac.kr/jsp/common/DcLoOrgPer.jsp?sItemId=000000116173-
dc.description.abstract최근 고령인구의 증가로 인해 장래기대수명 및 사망률에 관한 연구가 그 어느 때보다 활발한 시기이다. 기대수명자료는 인구와 관련된 보건, 사회, 정치 특히 연금 등에서 정책연구의 기초자료로 사용되기 때문에 중요하다. 다른 나라들의 경우, 인구와 관련된 분야(사망률, 출생률, 국제인구이동 등)에서 베이지안 연구가 활발하지만 그에 비해 한국의 경우 연구가 미비한 실정이다. 따라서 본 논문은 베이지안 방법을 이용하여 한국 남녀의 사망률을 추정해보고 이를 이용하여 미래 사망률 및 장래기대수명을 예측해본다. 베이지안 추정법은 계수의 불확실성을 쉽게 반영할 수 있으며, 자료와 사전가정을 기본으로 한 시뮬레이션을 이용하여 추정된다. 또한 한국의 고령인구 중 85세 이상 초고령 인구가 증가할 것으로 예측되므로 고령연령에의 사망률을 신뢰 있게 추정하도록 한다.;Recently with the increase of elderly population rate, researches in future life expectancy and death rate are being actively done. Informations on life expectancies are important since it plays as the basis of policy researches in health, society, politics, and especially annuity. In the case of other countries, Bayesian studies on human related fields (death rate, birth rate, international migration etc.) are being actively in practice, however compared to those countries, in Korea researches are in weak conditions. Therefore, this study will estimate the death rate of Korean male and female by using the Bayesian method and through this, predict the future death rate as well as the future life expectancy. The Bayesian estimation scheme will easily reflect the uncertain coefficient, and will be predicted according to the simulation of the prior assumptions. Moreover, since the super-aged elders aging above 85 are predicted to increase, reliable death rates of elderly aged will be possibly estimated.-
dc.description.tableofcontentsⅠ. Introduction 1 A. Background of Study 1 B. Purpose of Study 3 C. Composition of Study 4 Ⅱ. Introduction of theory and model 5 A. Prediction of death rate of elderly aged 5 B. Lee-Carter model 7 C. Estimating method and predicting future mortality 8 Ⅲ. Bayesian estimation to Lee-Carter model 10 A. Properties of Bayesian estimation to Lee-Carter model 10 B. Introduction of Bayesian estimation to Lee-Carter model 11 Ⅳ. Estimating Bayesian of Lee-Carter model using reference of Korean death rate 15 A. Estimating death rate of Korean elderly aged 15 B. Robustness checking of Lee-Carter model’s estimated values 22 C. Comparison of prediction suitability per fitting period 25 D. Prediction of Korea’s future life expectancy 26 Ⅴ. Conclusion and Discussion 28 Bibliography 29 Appendix 1 31 ABSTRACT (in Korean) 34-
dc.formatapplication/pdf-
dc.format.extent913040 bytes-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisher이화여자대학교 대학원-
dc.subject.ddc500-
dc.titleEstimation of Lee-Carter model by using bayesian method and prediction of mortality and future life expectancy in korea-
dc.typeMaster's Thesis-
dc.title.translatedLee-Carter 모형의 베이지안 추정 및 이를 이용한 한국의 사망률 및 장래기대수명 예측-
dc.creator.othernameOh, Ha Lynn-
dc.format.pageiv, 34 p.-
dc.contributor.examiner오만숙-
dc.contributor.examiner이외숙-
dc.contributor.examiner유재근-
dc.identifier.thesisdegreeMaster-
dc.identifier.major대학원 통계학과-
dc.date.awarded2015. 8-
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