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연령코호트 종단분석을 통한 주택소유 및 공간분포 특성 연구
- 연령코호트 종단분석을 통한 주택소유 및 공간분포 특성 연구
- Other Titles
- A Study on the Characteristics and Spatial Distribution of Homeownership through Age Cohorts Analysis
- Issue Date
- 대학원 건축학과
- 이화여자대학교 대학원
- Abode provides a place to rest and live for a family; hence, a house should be the most comfortable shelter. In the modern society of materialism, however, the traditional value and concept of abode was replaced by a new perspective focusing on the value of abode as a consumer good. With the advancement of the modern society, the demographic migration was induced by the shift of job opportunities into the urban areas; and the urbanization has entailed the fission of the extended family into nuclear or electron families. Accordingly, the number of households has been substantially and incessantly increasing to the effect of ever-increasing demand for housing.
The urbanization and rapid population growth has necessitated massive-scale housing demands, which resulted in the demand surplus over the supply, heating the housing market.
Korea was engulfed in the wave of full-scale modernization and industrialization in the 1960s following the liberation in 1945 and the Korean War in the early 1950s. When the housing demand began to explode in the 1960s, the government initiated various housing supply systems in efforts to continuously supply a large number of housing.
In this spirit, the Korean government introduced and implemented some bold policy measures for housing supply and rehabilitation: the land readjustment scheme in 1966 and the apartment district zoning in 1981, the urban redevelopment plan in 2003 etc. The land readjustment scheme was intended to convert agricultural lands into housing lots; the apartment district zoning to readjust the zoning of agricultural lands into massive residential areas for development; the housing lot development plan to address the difficulties in acquiring large lands for massive development projects by allowing the land expropriation under the law. The urban redevelopment project has enabled the undertaking of massive rehabilitation projects in the twilight zones of large cities.
Thanks to these institutional changes, the supply of aparment units has remarkably increased: the housing supply ratio has indeed grown to more than 100 percent in 2010. In developed countries like USA and Europe, the housing supply is fully stabilized and thus the government policy focuses on housing management and remodeling. On the contrary, in Korea, the policy concern is still directed toward supply of new houses. In fact, Korea has not yet reached to the level of developed countries in terms of housing environment; and there exists a lot of discrepancies in housing environment according to the residential patterns, i.e, single houses and apartment units. Most Koreans prefer to live in apartment units due to conveniences and benefits associated with apartment housing; and thus apartment units are the major theme in the Korean housing market.
For proper house supply, the proper demand prediction is crucial; and in this regard, Korea has utilized in large part the Mankiw-Weil model focusing on the housing demand changing along the life-cycle of the population. The life-cycle theory is, however, based on the presumption that a typical life-cycle will apply uniformly to all ages. Accordingly, in the Mankiw-Wel model, the life-cycle is not able to reflect the momentum deriving from external variables such as increases in income or life expectancy, changes in educational level etc.
Mindful of this constraint, this study conducted the spatial analysis based on the assumption that the age-specific changes in the housing pattern and ownership exert greater influences than premised in the simple life-cycle model.
So far most studies have focused on the effects deriving from the changes in the life-cycle. This type of cross-sectional study provides understanding on the current status at the time of the study. However, those studies undertaken so far have not shed light on the temporal changes across the age levels.
In an effort to overcome this limitation, this study conducted a longitudinal analysis focusing on the "ages". Herein the ‘age’ is defined in overall reference to age, duration, cohort etc.; and thus it refers to a group of people who share common social experiences. Based on this key concept of "age", this study has examined the changes in the spatial distribution in the housing pattern and ownership relationship, thereby focusing on the characteristics as the population grow older along the age levels. The housing pattern is clearly under the age-specific influences. Meanwhile, while the housing ownership is under the age-specific influences, it is also crucially exposed to the household-specific influences, as shown in the continuously lowering owner-occupation ratio in recent years.
Due to some limitation in accessing to the reliable data, this study has focused on the owner-occupation data included in the 2000 to 2010 Population and Housing Census. Here the owner-occupation data are classified in terms of residential district and age level. We decided to focus in the analysis in the metropolitan Seoul region as much as the data in the regions have enabled us to draw significant results.
The analysis of the owner-occupation spatial distribution over the ages in the metropolitan Seoul region has revealed the following results: the spatial distribution in the southern region indicates that as the owner-occupants the young generations tend to live in the outer areas, whereas the older generations to live in the center area; there is recognizable trend of age-specific stickiness and yet the spatial distribution is changing over the period of time. When we compared the year 2000 with the year 2010, we came to note that some large new towns and residential areas have expanded beyond the outer boundaries. And along with this trend, young household heads in their 30s have purchased new houses in the expanding residential districts in the outer areas. This trend is deemed to have formed the age-specific concentric circles.
To further clarify the age-specific characteristics in the residential distribution in the metropolitan Seoul region, this study has mapped out the household distribution in terms of household ages in the region. The map has visualized the results into the ellipses of standard deviation. It turned out that the older households tend to have their own houses closer to the center of Seoul, whereas the younger households tend to have their own houses farther from the center of Seoul.
In the changes between the years 2000 and 2010, the common feature was the increase in the owner-occupation ratio across all age groups, which signifies that the residential areas have been expanding to the outer regions.
And in terms of direction, the expansion has been concentrated in the southern region of Gyunggi-do, with remarkable changes taking place in Hwasung and Yongin areas. On the other hand, substantial changes are not observable in the northern region, signifying the big gaps in the two regions. In terms of the owner-occupancy ratio, the forties in 2010 is higher than the thirties in 2000. Inside Seoul city, the same ratio shows noticeable increase in Songpa, Gangseo, Enpyung districts; and in Gyunggi-do, the same ratio rapidly increased in Bucheon, Ansan, Suwon, Hwasung and Yongin cities.
When looking into the trend of the fifties in 2010, their ratio of owner-occupancy has expanded into the areas of Goyang, Bucheon, Seongnam, Anayng, Suwon cities around Seoul; and, inside Seoul, the same ratio has increased in the major 3 districts in Gangnam areas. The total space of their ownership-occupancy is higher than that of the forties; and the difference was particularly noticeable in the major 3 districts in Gangnam areas.
When looking into the trend of the sixties in 2010, their owner-occupancy ratio in Seoul has decreased whereas the same raio in Goyang, Bundang, Yongin, Suwon has increased. Needless to say, this signifies that they have sold their own houses in the central Seoul area and moved to adjancent cities.
When looking into the trend of the seventies in 2010, their owner-occupancy ratio in Seoul has remarkably decreased and, just like the
trend of the sixties, they have moved to Goyang, Bundang, Yongin, Suwon, Seongnam areas.
Combining together the results of this study, we may perceive the overall age-specific spatial distribution changes in the metropolitan Seoul area: while in thirties to fifties, they tend to obtain owner-occupied houses in central areas, specifically in Seoul and adjacent cities. Later, in sixties and older, they tend to dispose the owner-occupied houses in Seoul and move out to adjacent areas such as Goyang, Seongnam, Yongin, Suwon etc.
It is interesting to note that the the spatial distribution of owner-occupancy of the thirties, forties and fifties resembles concentric circles, wherein the thirties occupies the outermost circle, specifically in the southern region, and then the circles are occupied by the forties and fifties in order. Meanwhile, as expectedly, there is a trend of age-specific inverse relationship wherein the age of house owners tends to be higher as we approach to the center of Seoul. This corresponds to the fact that the fifties are the group occupying
the largest number of owner-occupied houses in the center of Seoul. Indeed, the age of the owner-occupied households gets younger as we move out to the outer areas. This phenomenon in fact has close relationship with the average income level and asset holdings.
The study conducted by Ji-young Im et. al (2015) indicates that Korea populations tend to purchase their own houses in their thirties in their life-cycle. In general, they tend to purchase their own first house in the residential areas accommodating new house development projects. This means that the location selected in their thirties will be the residential district that is representative for their generation. The actual data for the year 2010 also confirms this presumption: the forties are the group holding the largest number of owner-occupied houses in Seongnam (Bundang) or Goyang (Ilsan), whereas the thirties are the group in Dongtan, Paju etc. The results reviewed so far do not corresponds to the theoretical discussions concerning the residential successionbasedonthelife-cycleanalysis.
In this regard, the recent social issue associated with the security-deposit rent and monthly rent is not a problem relevant to all age groups but an age-specific problem concerning the thirties and young generation who are lower in the owner-occupancy ratio. For couple of years, the Korean housing market has not seen massive housing development projects. This has delayed the first-time house purchases by the thirties. In the current circumstance, the housing supply pattern location of new houses to be distributed on rental or ownership transfer is crucial in meeting this unsatisfied demand.
The reality is that we have already entered the stage of urban maturity with sheer opportunities to provide low-priced lands for housing projects. Accordingly, it is predictable that the supply of housing at low price at a level acceptable to the young generations will not be easily available. Likewise, it is more likely that the young generations will find residence on rental basis rather than owner-occupancy basis. Given that the owner-occupied houses in the central areas are mostly held by the fifties and sixties, another social problem of patrimonial property discrepancy may arise when those properties are inherited to the eco-generation who are children of the current owners. The residential succession by inheritance will deepen the social discrepancy that will be particularly felt sensitive to those who are alienated in the process. This implies that Korea is facing with the possibility that the 'patrimonial capitalism' may be a reality as predicted by Thomas Piketty.;급변하는 사회에서 물리적인 변화를 가장 크게 느낄 수 있는 곳은 우리가 안락한 휴식을 취하고 일상적인 가정생활을 영위하는 주택일 것이다. 우리는 보다 편안하고, 편리하게 거주하기 위하여 주택을 소유하게 된다. 어떤 주택을 소유할 것인가는 입지, 직장과의 거리, 교육여건, 자산 등 많은 요인에 의하여 결정된다. 국가 정책에서도 주택은 국민의 주거안정을 도모하고 가격을 안정시켜야 하는 대상이다.
지금까지 주택의 수요와 선호에 대한 연구에서 주로 횡단면적인 생애주기에 대한 분석이 이용되었다. 횡단면적 생애주기 활용은 양적인 주택공급이 주요하던 시기에는 총량을 계산하고 지역에 안배해주기 위하여 꼭 필요하였다. 하지만 앞으로는 양적 공급보다 연령대 및 세대별로 원하는 지역에 원하는 주택을 공급하는 수요자 중심의 분석이 필요할 것이다.
본 연구는 당해년도의 횡단면적인 인구데이타를 연결한다고 그 시대에 거주하는 사람들의 생애주기가 반영되는 것이 아니라는 문제의식에서 출발하였다. 10년을 먼저 살아간 세대의 생애와 앞으로 10년 후 세대의 생애와 동일할 수 없다. 따라서 연속성을 갖는 생애주기에 대한 분석이 필요하다. 주택 유형변화와 소유관계 변화에 대하여 세대와 생애주기에 초점을 맞추어 구체적으로 살펴보고자 한다.
패널데이터를 활용하여 분석한다면 생애추적 연구를 할 수 있을 것이다. 하지만 패널데이터는 구축하는데 많은 시간과 비용이 든다. 또한 시간이 지날수록 패널이소실됨으로 인하여 대표성을 잃게 되는 문제점도 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 세대분석을 위한 연구에 적합한 방법론을 활용하고자 하였다. 사회학에서는 세대논의가 오랜 기간 지속되어 왔다. 카를만하임은 20세기 초에 이미 세대 형성에 대한 계급론적 접근을 통해 세대위치, 실제세대, 세대단위 등을 구분하였다. 우리나라에서도 많은 세대논의가 있어왔으며, 최근 세대분석에 코호트 분석(APC analysis)을 활용하는 시도도 있었다.
본 연구에서도 연령별 주택유형과 주거소유의 변화를 분석하는데 연령효과, 기간효과, 코호트효과를 분리하여 분석하였다. 연령효과는 주택유형이나 주거소유관계 중 어느 연령이 우세한지를 분석할 수 있었다. 2010년 아파트에 가장 많이 거주하는 연령대는 30대였다. 이들은 대부분의 생애를 아파트에서 거주한 세대들이다. 또한 자가소유비율이 높은 연령은 60세 이상의 고령자들이었다(60세 이상 자가 가구주 수/60세 이상 가구주 수). 기간효과는 동일 연령대의 시계열적 변화를 분석할 수 있었다. 예를 들면 주택유형에 있어서 아파트에 거주하는 비율은 시
간이 증가할수록 모든 연령대에서 증가하였다. 자가소유비율은 각 연령대에서 모두 하락하였고 60세 이상보다 20대나 30대의 하락폭이 컸다. 이는 주택소유에 있어서 세대간 격차가 커지고 있음을 나타내고 있다. 각 시기별 동일 세대의 연령데이타를 연계한 코호트 분석에서는 과거에서부터 이어지는 연속적인 데이터를 분석할 수 있었다. 동일출생연령 집단이 청소년기에 동일한 사회적 경험으로 인하여 동질의식을 느끼는 세대로 구분하고 그 특성을 분석에 활용하였다.
본 연구에서 세대는 통계자료 활용의 용이성을 바탕으로 기존 자료를 분석하여 6개 집단으로 구분하였다. 구분된 세대는 에코세대(2010년 20대, 1980년대생), X세대(2010년 30대, 1970년대생), 민주화세대(2010년 40대, 1960년대생), 산업화세대(2010년 50대, 1950년대생), 전쟁세대(2010년 60대, 1940년대생), 광복세대(2010년 70대, 1930년대생) 등이다.
주택유형의 코호트적 특성으로 1950년대 생을 기준으로 이전세대는 단독주택에 많이 거주하며 이후 세대는 아파트에 거주하는 세대간 분리현상이 나타났다. 이는 만하임의 세대론에서 설명한 바와 같이 인생의 민감한 시기에 경험한 주택유형이 크게 작용했을 것으로 해석된다.
주택의 자가소유 공간분포 데이터를 활용하여 APC 분석을 실시하였다. 연령분석을 통해 연령별 우세지역을 분석해 낼 수 있었다. 40대와 50대의 경우 서울시내에 자가소유가 많은 것으로 나타났다. 기간분석을 통하여 각 연령별 공간의 분산 및 집중정도를 확인 할 수 있었다. 연령이 낮을수록 주요대도시를 중심으로 자가소유를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 분포 뿐 아니라, 전체적인 양도 증가하여 기간효과를 통해서는 양적인 증가와 분포의 집중 및 분산을 파악할 수 있었다. 코호트 분석을 통하여 자가소유의 연령별 분리현상을 파악하였다. 표준편차 타원체를 활용하여 집중 및 분산의 방향도 파악할 수 있었다. 수도권의 자가소유분포 데이터를활용하여 30대, 40대 및 50대의 자가소유 분포가 동심원을 그리며 위계화되어 분포되어 있는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.
본 연구를 통하여 전체를 집합적으로 보지 않을 때 드러나지 않았던 새로운 세대별 특성을 발견할 수 있었다. 이러한 특성들을 분석할 수 있는 APC 방법론은 세대 맞춤형 주택공급 및 주택정책 수립에 활용될 수 있을 것이다.
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