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Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time
- Title
- Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time
- Authors
- Hundessa; Samuel; Huang; Wenzhong; Zhao; Qi; Wu; Yao; Wen; Bo; Alahmad; Barrak; Armstrong; Ben; Gasparrini; Antonio; Sera; Francesco; Shilu; Madureira; Tong; Joana; Kyselý; Jan; Schwartz; Joel; Vicedo-Cabrera; Ana Maria; Hales; Simon; Johnson; Amanda; Li; Shanshan; Guo; Yuming; Jaakkola; Jouni J.K.; Ryti; Niilo; Urban; Aleš; Tobias; Aurelio; Royé; Dominic; Lavigne; Eric; Ragettli; Martina S.; Åström; Christofer; Raz; Raanan; Pascal; Mathilde; Kan; Haidong; Goodman; Patrick; Zeka; Ariana; Hashizume; Masahiro; Diaz; Magali Hurtado; Seposo; Xerxes; Nunes; Baltazar; Kim; Ho; Lee; Whanhee; Íñiguez; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho; Micheline; Ortega; Nicolás Valdés; Scovronick; Noah; Michelozzi; Paola; Correa; Patricia Matus; Nascimento Saldiva; Paulo Hilario; Abrutzky; Rosana; Osorio; Colistro; Valentina; Huber; Veronika; Honda; Yasushi; Yoonhee; Bell; Michelle; Xu; Rongbin; Yang; Zhengyu; Roradeh; Hematollah; Félix Arellano; Eunice Elizabeth; Rao; Shilpa; Carlos Chua; Paul Lester; da Silva; Susana das Neves Pereira; De la Cruz Valencia; César; Carmen; Yue Leon; Pan; Shih-Chun; Zanobetti; Antonella; Dang; Tran Ngoc; Van Dung; Do; Schneider; Alexandra; Entezari; Alireza; Analitis; Antonis; Forsberg; Bertil; Ameling; Caroline; Houthuijs; Danny; Indermitte; Ene; Mayvaneh; Fatemeh; Acquaotta; Fiorella; de'Donato; Francesca; Carrasco-Escobar; Gabriel; Orru; Hans; Katsouyanni; Klea
- Ewha Authors
- 이환희
- SCOPUS Author ID
- 이환희
![scopus](/images/layout/icon2.png)
- Issue Date
- 2024
- Journal Title
- Journal of the American College of Cardiology
- ISSN
- 7351-1097
- Citation
- Journal of the American College of Cardiology vol. 83, no. 23, pp. 2276 - 2287
- Keywords
- cardiovascular death; death ratio; excess death; Global Burden of Disease; nonoptimal temperatures
- Indexed
- SCOPUS
![scopus](/images/layout/scopus2.gif)
- Document Type
- Article
- Abstract
- Background: The association between nonoptimal temperatures and cardiovascular mortality risk is recognized. However, a comprehensive global assessment of this burden is lacking. Objectives: The goal of this study was to assess global cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and investigate spatiotemporal trends. Methods: Using daily cardiovascular deaths and temperature data from 32 countries, a 3-stage analytical approach was applied. First, location-specific temperature–mortality associations were estimated, considering nonlinearity and delayed effects. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was developed between location-specific effect estimates and 5 meta-predictors. Third, cardiovascular deaths associated with nonoptimal, cold, and hot temperatures for each global grid (55 km × 55 km resolution) were estimated, and temporal trends from 2000 to 2019 were explored. Results: Globally, 1,801,513 (95% empirical CI: 1,526,632-2,202,831) annual cardiovascular deaths were associated with nonoptimal temperatures, constituting 8.86% (95% empirical CI: 7.51%-12.32%) of total cardiovascular mortality corresponding to 26 deaths per 100,000 population. Cold-related deaths accounted for 8.20% (95% empirical CI: 6.74%-11.57%), whereas heat-related deaths accounted for 0.66% (95% empirical CI: 0.49%-0.98%). The mortality burden varied significantly across regions, with the highest excess mortality rates observed in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. From 2000 to 2019, cold-related excess death ratios decreased, while heat-related ratios increased, resulting in an overall decline in temperature-related deaths. Southeastern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Oceania observed the greatest reduction, while Southern Asia experienced an increase. The Americas and several regions in Asia and Europe displayed fluctuating temporal patterns. Conclusions: Nonoptimal temperatures substantially contribute to cardiovascular mortality, with heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. Effective mitigation and adaptation strategies are crucial, especially given the increasing heat-related cardiovascular deaths amid climate change. © 2024 American College of Cardiology Foundation
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.jacc.2024.03.425
- Appears in Collections:
- 의과대학 > 의학과 > Journal papers
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