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Forecasting economic indicators using a consumer sentiment index: Survey-based versus text-based data

Title
Forecasting economic indicators using a consumer sentiment index: Survey-based versus text-based data
Authors
Song, MinchaeShin, Kyung-shik
Ewha Authors
신경식송민채
SCOPUS Author ID
신경식scopus
Issue Date
2019
Journal Title
JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
ISSN
0277-6693JCR Link

1099-131XJCR Link
Citation
JOURNAL OF FORECASTING vol. 38, no. 6, pp. 504 - 518
Keywords
consumer sentiment indexeconomic indicator forecastingsentiment analysistext mining
Publisher
WILEY
Indexed
SSCI; SCOPUS WOS
Document Type
Article
Abstract
Given the confirmed effectiveness of the survey-based consumer sentiment index (CSI) as a leading indicator of real economic conditions, the CSI is actively used in making policy judgments and decisions in many countries. However, although the CSI offers qualitative information for presenting current conditions and predicting a household's future economic activity, the survey-based method has several limitations. In this context, we extracted sentiment information from online economic news articles and demonstrated that the Korean cases are a good illustration of applying a text mining technique when generating a CSI using sentiment analysis. By applying a simple sentiment analysis based on the lexicon approach, this paper confirmed that news articles can be an effective source for generating an economic indicator in Korea. Even though cross-national comparative research results are suited better than national-level data to generalize and verify the method used in this study, international comparisons are quite challenging to draw due to the necessary linguistic preprocessing. We hope to encourage further cross-national comparative research to apply the approach proposed in this study.
DOI
10.1002/for.2584
Appears in Collections:
경영대학 > 경영학전공 > Journal papers
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