Predictors of long-term mortality after hospitalization for acute exacerbation of COPD

Abstract

Background: Acute exacerbations form a major component of the socioeconomic burden of COPD. As yet, little information is available about the long-term outcome of patients who have been hospitalized with acute exacerbations, although high mortality rates have been reported. The aim of this study was to determine predictors of long-term mortality after hospitalization for acute exacerbation of COPD. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients admitted to the hospital for COPD exacerbation between 2000 through 2004. Patients who had died in hospital or within 6-months after discharge, had tuberculosis scar, pleural thickening or bronchiectasis by chest radiography or had been diagnosed with malignancy during follow-up periods were excluded. Results: Mean age of patients was 69.5 years, mean follow-up duration was 49 months, and mean FEV 1 was 1.00L (46% of predicted). Mortality was 35% (17/48). In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, heart rate of 100/min or more (p=0.003; relative risk [RR], 11.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.34-61.44) and right ventricular systolic pressure (RVSP) of 35mmHg or more (p=0.019; RR, 6.85; 95% CI, 1.38-34.02) were independent predictors of mortality. Conclusion: Heart rate and RVSP in stable state may be useful in predicting long-term mortality for COPD patients admitted to hospital with acute exacerbation.