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Uncertainty analysis using the WRF maximum likelihood ensemble filter system and comparison with dropwindsonde observations in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)

Title
Uncertainty analysis using the WRF maximum likelihood ensemble filter system and comparison with dropwindsonde observations in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)
Authors
Kim H.H.Park S.K.Zupanski D.Zupanski M.
Ewha Authors
박선기
SCOPUS Author ID
박선기scopus
Issue Date
2010
Journal Title
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
ISSN
1976-7633JCR Link
Citation
vol. 46, no. 3, pp. 317 - 325
Indexed
SCIE; SCOPUS; KCI WOS scopus
Abstract
In this study, the maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF) is applied to a tropical cyclone case to identify the uncertainty areas in the context of targeting observations, using the WRF model. Typhoon Sinlaku (2008), from which dropwindsonde data are collected through THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (TPARC), is selected for the case study. For the uncertainty analysis, a measurement called the deep layer mean (DLM) wind variance is employed. With assimilation of conventional rawinsonde data, the MLEF-WRF system demonstrated stable data assimilation performance over multiple data assimilation cycles and produced high uncertainties mostly in data-void areas, for the given tropical cyclone case. Dropwindsonde deployment through T-PARC turned out to occur inside or near the weak uncertainty areas that are identified through the MLEF-WRF system. The uncertainty analysis using the MLEF method can provide a guide for identifying more effective targeting observation areas. © 2010 Korean Meteorological Society and Springer Netherlands.
DOI
10.1007/s13143-010-1004-1
Appears in Collections:
엘텍공과대학 > 환경공학전공 > Journal papers
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