Nonlinear dynamic relations between equity return and equity fund flow: Korean market empirical evidence

Abstract

This research studies the dynamic relationship between equity returns and equity fund flows by incorporating nonlinear properties of the two variables. Nonlinear estimation based on a smooth transition autoregressive model reveals results different from those previously reported based on a linear relationship. Our empirical results find that there is significant mutual Granger causality between equity returns and equity fund flows. In addition, by introducing the dividend yield effect, significant Granger causality is also found between the three variables. This can be interpreted as meaning that demand for equities is downward sloping for both the price pressure effect and the information effect. Relatively fast regime switching and dynamic instability show that stock investment through equity funds is mostly short-horizon-oriented investment. © 2010 Korean Securities Association.