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Modifying Effect of Heat Waves on the Relationship between Temperature and Mortality

Title
Modifying Effect of Heat Waves on the Relationship between Temperature and Mortality
Authors
Lee, Won KyungLee, Hye AhPark, Hyesook
Ewha Authors
박혜숙이혜아
SCOPUS Author ID
박혜숙scopus; 이혜아scopus
Issue Date
2016
Journal Title
JOURNAL OF KOREAN MEDICAL SCIENCE
ISSN
1011-8934JCR Link1598-6357JCR Link
Citation
vol. 31, no. 5, pp. 702 - +
Keywords
TemperatureHeat WaveMortalityWeather
Publisher
KOREAN ACAD MEDICAL SCIENCES
Indexed
SCI; SCIE; SCOPUS; KCI WOS scopus
Abstract
Studies conducted to evaluate temporal trends of heat-related mortality have not considered the effects of heat waves; although it is known they can affect mortality and act as a modifying factor. After adjusting for long-term trends and seasonality, the effects of temperature on non-accidental deaths in Seoul and Busan (inland and coastal cities, respectively) were analyzed using a generalized additive model of Poisson distribution. We evaluated temporal trends of heat-related mortalities in four periods (1991-1995, 1996-2000, 2001-2005, and 2006-2012). The effects of temperature on mortality were evaluated according to the occurrence of a heat wave and results were compared in the two cities. The effect of temperature on mortality was the greatest in 1991-1995 in Seoul; no significant change was observed in Busan. When we stratified the study period by heat wave status, the risk increase in mortality was 15.9% per 1 degrees C during years with a heat wave in Seoul, which was much higher than 0.31% increase observed during years without a heat wave. On the other hand, Busan showed a linear relationship between temperature and mortality and no significant difference between years with or without a heat wave. Variations in the relationship between temperature and mortality could be misunderstood if heat waves are not considered. Furthermore, heterogeneity was found in the modifying effect of heat waves on heat-related mortality in inland and coastal cities. The findings of this study help understand relations between temperature and mortality.
DOI
10.3346/jkms.2016.31.5.702
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의학전문대학원 > 의학과 > Journal papers
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