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Added effect of heat wave on mortality in Seoul, Korea

Title
Added effect of heat wave on mortality in Seoul, Korea
Authors
Lee, Won KyungLee, Hye AhLim, Youn HeePark, Hyesook
Ewha Authors
박혜숙이혜아
SCOPUS Author ID
박혜숙scopus; 이혜아scopus
Issue Date
2016
Journal Title
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY
ISSN
0020-7128JCR Link1432-1254JCR Link
Citation
vol. 60, no. 5, pp. 719 - 726
Keywords
Heat waveMortalityTemperatureWeather
Publisher
SPRINGER
Indexed
SCI; SCIE; SCOPUS WOS scopus
Abstract
A heat wave could increase mortality owing to high temperature. However, little is known about the added (duration) effect of heat wave from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and different effect sizes depending on the definition of heat waves and models. A distributed lag non-linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the added effect of heat wave on mortality after adjusting for long-term and intra-seasonal trends and apparent temperature. We evaluated the cumulative relative risk of the added wave effect on mortality on lag days 0-30. The models were constructed using nine definitions of heat wave and two relationships (cubic spline and linear threshold model) between temperature and mortality to leave out the high temperature effect. Further, we performed sensitivity analysis to evaluate the changes in the effect of heat wave on mortality according to the different degrees of freedom for time trend and cubic spline of temperature. We found that heat wave had the added effect from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and it was considerable in the aspect of cumulative risk because of the lagged influence. When heat wave was defined with a threshold of 98th percentile temperature and a parts per thousand yen2, 3, and 4 consecutive days, mortality increased by 14.8 % (7.5-22.6, 95 % confidence interval (CI)), 18.1 % (10.8-26.0, 95 % CI), 18.1 % (10.7-25.9, 95 % CI), respectively, in cubic spline model. When it came to the definitions of 90th and 95th percentile, the risk increase in mortality declined to 3.7-5.8 % and 8.6-11.3 %, respectively. This effect was robust to the flexibility of the model for temperature and time trend, while the definitions of a heat wave were critical in estimating its relationship with mortality. This finding could help deepen our understanding and quantifying of the relationship between heat wave and mortality and select an appropriate definition of heat wave and temperature model in the future studies.
DOI
10.1007/s00484-015-1067-x
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의학전문대학원 > 의학과 > Journal papers
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