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경기변동이 지방자치단체 세입에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Title
경기변동이 지방자치단체 세입에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구
Other Titles
A Study on the Effects of Economic Fluctuations on Local Government Revenue : Focused on Seoul Metropolitan and Autonomous District Governments of Capital
Authors
김인수
Issue Date
2011
Department/Major
정책과학대학원 공공정책학전공
Publisher
이화여자대학교 대학원
Degree
Master
Advisors
김세완
Abstract
본 연구의 목적은 세입귀속 별, 세목 별, 자치구별 지방세입과 관련이 있는 경제변수를 추출하고, 경제변수가 지방세입에 미치는 영향의 정도를 계량적으로 제시하여, 지방재정정책에 있어 효율성을 제고 시키는데 있다. 연구의 범위는 서울특별시 및 자치구로 한정하여, 1996년부터 2009년까지로 14년간의 패널자료를 사용 하였다. 연구대상은 경기변동을 나타내 줄 수 있는 경제지표로 경제성장률, 지가변동률(서울), 토지거래현황 증감률(서울, ㎡), 자동차등록대수 증감 율(서울), 취업자수 증감률(서울), 금리(국고 채3년) 등 6개 지표로 하였고, 지방자치단체 세입으로는 지방세입, 지방세, 시세, 구세, 시 경상적 세외 수입, 구경상 적 세외 수입, 취득세, 등록세, 주민세, 자동차세, 도시계획세, 공동 시설 세, 재산세, 사업소세로 하여 SPSS에 의한 상관관계분석 및 다중회귀분석으로 연구하였다. 첫째, Pearson상관관계분석 결과 지방세는 시세가 경제성장률, 지가변동률, 토지거래현황증감률, 자동차등록대수증감률, 취업자수증감률과 유의하게 나타나 구세보다 더 경기변동에 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났으며, 세외수입은 구 경상적세 외 수입에서 경제성장률, 지가변동률, 자동차등록대수증감률, 취업자수증감률과 유의하게 나타나 시 경상적세 외 수입보다 경기변동에 더 영향을 받는 것으로 분석되었다. 둘째, 다중회귀분석결과 총 지방 세입 과 지방세는 자동차등록대수가 각 1% 증가할 때 평균 2.841%, 2.475%, 시세는 자동차등록대수, 토지거래, 시장금리가 각 1% 증가할 때 3.997(1.818+0.224+1.955)%, 구 경상적 세외수입은 취업자수가 1% 증가할 때 1.468% 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 취득세는 토지거래, 지가변동률이 각 1% 증가할 때 2.900(0.489+2.411)%, 등록세는 토지거래, 자동차등록대수가 각 1% 증가할 때 1.056(0.744+0.312)% 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 주민세와 자동차세는 시장금리가 각 1% 상승할 때 4.503%, 3.007%, 사업 소 세 는 취업자수가 1% 증가할 때 1.645% 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 셋째, 자치구별 회귀분석결과 시세에서는 종로, 용산, 광진, 금천, 양천구 등 5개 구를 제외한 20개 자치구에서, 구경상 적 세외 수 입에서는 중구, 강북, 서초, 송파, 도봉, 양천, 영등포구 등 7개 자치구에서 구별로 각각 다르게 경제변수가 도출되면서 유의하게 나타났다.;The objective of this study is to enhance the efficiency of local finance policies by identifying economic variables that affect local government revenue according to the type of tax, attribution of revenues and autonomous district governments, and providing a quantitative analysis of their effects on those revenues. The study was limited to examining Seoul Metropolitan City and its autonomous districts (Gu), based on 14years of panel data from1996 to 2009. The analysis focused on two areas : economic fluctuation indicators and local government revenues. The study used six indicators for economic fluctuation : the economic growth rate, fluctuation rates for land price (Seoul), land transactions (Seoul, ㎡), the number of registered motor vehicle (Seoul) and the number of employed people (Seoul), and the interest rate for three-year treasury bonds. Local government revenues were divided into sub-categories: local tax revenue, local taxes, city(Seoul) taxes, district (Gu) taxes, city(Seoul)'s current non-tax revenues, district (Gu)’s current non-tax revenues, acquisition tax, registration tax, inhabitant tax, automobile tax, urban planning tax, communal facility tax, property tax, and business office tax. The statistical techniques used in the study included the correlation and multiple regression analysis through the SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences). Firstly, the Pearson correlation analysis indicated that when it came to local taxes, city(Seoul) taxes showed a significant correlation with the fluctuation rates for land price, land transaction, the number of registered motor vehicle, and the number of those in employment, which means they are more affected by the economic cycle than district (Gu) taxes. In terms of non-tax revenues, district (Gu)’s current non-tax revenues proved more susceptible to economic fluctuations than city’s current non-tax revenues, as demonstrated by their significant correlation with the economic growth rate, land price fluctuation rate, and rise in number of registered motor vehicle and employed people. Secondly, according to the multiple regression analysis, total local tax revenues and local taxes increased by an average of 2.841% and 2.475% respectively when the number of registered motor vehicle rose 1%. City(Seoul) taxes rose 3.997(1.818+0.224+1.955) % when motor vehicle registration, land transactions and market interest rate went up 1% respectively while district (Gu)’s current non-tax revenues increased 1.468% when the number of employed people grew 1%. Acquisition tax was pushed up 1.406(0.586+0.820) % by a 1% increase in the land transactions and land price fluctuation rates, and registration tax was driven up 2.900(0.489+2.411) % by a 1% increase in land transaction and number of registered motor vehicles. A 1% rise in the market interest rate led inhabitant tax and automobile tax to rise 4.503% and 3.007% respectively, and a 1% growth in the number of employed people pushed the business office tax up 1.645%. Thirdly, according to the regression analysis of the revenues by autonomous district governments(Gu), it was statistically significant that the economic variables affecting city(Seoul) taxes varied in 20 autonomous districts except five such as Jongno-gu, Yongsan-gu, Gwangjin-gu, Geumcheon-gu and Yangchon-gu while the variables for district (Gu)’s current non-tax revenues were different across 7 districts such as Jung-gu, Gangbuk-gu, Seocho-gu, Songpa-gu, Dobong-gu, Yangchon-gu and Youngdeungpo-gu.
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