조선시대의 기상재해 분포에 관한 연구

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to analyze meteorological records contained in representative old reference literatures such as the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty (朝鮮王朝實錄), the Diaries of Royal Secretariat of Joseon Dynasty (承政院日記) and the Collection of Korean Civilization & Institution Histories (增補文獻備考), so that it could focus on investigating flood and drought as a part of meteorological hazards throughout the age of Joseon Dynasty to characterize scale / frequency and spatiotemporal aspects of hazards in this age. In order to achieve the purposes, this study took a perspective of historical climatology to analyze old literatures and thereby examined a variety of academic case studies on meteorological hazard. And it analyzed reference data extracted and outlined from old literatures to investigate into a history of hazards in Joseon Dynasty primarily in the aspect of hazard scale / frequency as well as in the spatiotemporal aspect of hazard. On the basis of findings from analysis, this study sought to characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological hazards (flood and drought) in the age of Joseon Dynasty. This study adopted elementary reference materials such as the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty, the Diaries of Royal Secretariat of Joseon Dynasty and the Collection of Korean Civilization & Institution Histories. And it extracted and rearranged a select list of data on flood and drought to embody the scale / frequency and spatiotemporal distribution of past floods and droughts on the maps of administrative district published in the age of Joseon Dynasty. Then, this study analyzed those weather data to characterize flood and drought hazards, and examined which potential characteristics of spatiotemporal distribution could be demonstrated by the scale and frequency of flood and drought hazards in the age of Joseon Dynasty. The results of this study can be summarized as follows: 1. It was found that flood hazards were characterized by extreme deviation between ‘light overflow’ and ‘severe flood' and the frequency of flood hazards reached the highest in the middle age of Joseon Dynasty, which was followed by the late age and early age of Joseon Dynasty respectively, but the scale of flood hazards became larger around the country as the time went from the early age via middle age to late age of Joseon Dynasty. Moreover, it was found that flood hazards during whole age of Joseon Dynasty had a tendency to rise and fall in the aspect of scale and frequency every 50 years. Torrential downpours occurred with high frequency in the early age of Joseon Dynasty, but resulting flood hazards occurred less frequently than expected and most of them were characterized by ‘light overflow.' However, the frequency of flood hazards began to rise significantly as the early age of Joseon Dynasty came near to the end (from 1501 to 1550). In the middle age of Joseon Dynasty, it was found that flood hazards occurred with highest frequency during whole area of Joseon Dynasty and most of them were characterized by ‘light overflow', but ‘middle-' or large-scale flood began to occur more frequently than before. In the late age of Joseon Dynasty, it was found that flood hazards occurred with a little lower frequency than in the middle age, but were mostly characterized by ‘severe' flood. According to analysis on periodic distribution of flood hazards, it was found that flood hazards occurred most frequently on the largest scale from 1651 to 1700's, which was followed by a period of 1601 to 1650's and a period of 1701 to 1750's respectively. By month, it was found that flood hazards converged on a season of May to August and were distributed most widely around the country during July. In the early and middle age of Joseon Dynasty, flood hazards converged mainly on a season of June and July, while they converged significantly on another season of July and August in the late age of Joseon Dynasty. According to analysis on regional distribution of flood hazards by frequency and scale, it was found that they occurred largely in Hanseong and neighboring inland regions of Gyeonggi province (e.g. Yangju, Yanggeun, Gwangju, Gapyeong and Goyang) in the early age of Joseon Dynasty. In the middle age of Joseon Dynasty, it was found that flood hazards occurred across inland or coastal regions in Gyeongsang province (e.g. Andong, Gunwi, Indong, Yeongsan, Milyang, Yangsan & Sacheon), Jeolla province (e.g. Suncheon, Gwangyang, Gurye, Yongdam & Jinan) and Chungcheong province (e.g. Imcheon, Chungwon, Cheongpung, Danyang & Yeongchun). In the late age of Joseon Dynasty, it was found that flood hazards began to occur more frequently in northern regions like Pyeongan province (Pyeongyang & Anju) and Hamgyeong province (Iwon & Myeongcheon), but remained converging primarily on inland or coastal regions of Gyeongsang province, Chungcheong province and Jeolla province, similarly to the middle age of Joseon Dynasty. 2. It was found that the frequency of drought hazards converged primarily on the early and middle age of Joseon Dynasty, but had a tendency to decrease in the late age of Joseon Dynasty. According to analysis on periodic distribution of drought hazards, it was found that they usually converged on April to July every year: Drought hazards occurred most frequently on June to July in the early age of Joseon Dynasty; on April to May in the middle age; and on May to June in the late age. That is, it was found that drought hazards occurred mainly during the midsummer season in the early age of Joseon Dynasty, during a season of spring and early summer in the middle age, and during a season of early and middle summer in the late age. Contrary to flood hazards, it was found that drought hazards were characterized by long period of variation at the interval of 200 years. According to analysis on regional distribution of drought hazards, it was found that they occurred most frequently on Gyeonggi province, which was followed by other provincial regions of Gyeongsang, Jeolla, Chungcheong and Hamgyeong. Moreover, it was found that the regional distribution of drought hazards had a tendency toward a cyclic variation at the interval of 50 years in the order of midland regions, north midland regions and south midland regions of Korean peninsula, and vice versa. 3. According to further analysis on chronological characteristics in the spatiotemporal distribution of flood and drought hazards in the whole age of Joseon Dynasty, it was found that ‘drought hazards’ converged significantly upon a period of 1392 to 1450's; ‘flood hazards’ occurred more frequently from 1501 to 1550's than before; ‘flood and drought hazards' converged most frequently and widely upon a period of 1601 to 1650's among others around the country; and ‘severe flood hazards' converged most frequently on a period of 1701 to 1900's among others. This finding demonstrated that a cycle of droughts and floods tended to occur by turns. As demonstrated by a relevant study (Lim and Jung, 1992), it was found that a period of drought continued after 1900's and was followed by increasing rainfall and flood. Hence, it is concluded that such a cycle of drought and flood can help to forecast weather variation (drought → flood → flood / drought → flood → drought).;본 연구의 목적은 『조선왕조실록』과 『승정원일기』, 『증보문헌비고』각각의 고문헌에 나타난 기록을 분석하여 조선시대의 기상재해를 홍수와 가뭄을 중심으로 재해의 규모/빈도와 시•공간적 분포 특성을 밝히고자 하는 것이다. 이를 위해 역사기후학적 관점에서 고문헌 분석을 통한 다양한 기상재해 연구사례를 검토하였고, 고문헌에서 추출•정리한 데이터를 분석하여 조선시대의 재해를 규모/빈도와 시•공간을 중심으로 살펴보고 그 결과를 바탕으로 조선시대의 기상재해(홍수와 가뭄)의 시•공간적 분포 특성을 파악하고자 한다. 본 연구는 조선왕조실록과 승정원일기, 증보문헌비고를 기본 자료로 하고 홍수와 가뭄 관련어로 데이터를 추출•정리하여 홍수와 가뭄의 규모/빈도와 시•공간적 분포를 조선시대행정구역지도에 구현했다. 이를 분석하여 홍수와 가뭄재해의 특성을 파악했고, 조선시대의 홍수와 가뭄 재해의 규모와 빈도가 시•공간적으로 어떠한 분포 특성을 나타내는지 고찰했다. 본 연구의 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 1. 홍수의 재해가 '극심' 또는 '약'의 양극단의 특성으로 나타났다. 재해의 빈도는 중기-후기-전기의 순으로 나타났고, 재해의 규모는 전기-중기-후기로 갈수록 강해지는 특성을 파악할 수 있었다. 또한 홍수 재해는 50년을 주기로 증감하는 경향이 있었다. 조선전기에는 호우발생빈도는 높았지만 재해로 이어진 홍수의 빈도는 낮았고 대부분 '약'에 해당하는 재해가 발생했다. 전기 말인 1501~1550년대부터는 재해의 빈도가 크게 증가하였다. 조선중기에는 재해의 빈도가 가장 높게 나타났고 역시 '약'에 해당하는 재해가 대부분이지만 '중'이상의 규모가 증가했다. 조선후기에는 중기보다는 약간 낮은 빈도로 발생했지만 대부분 '극심'에 해당하는 재해가 발생했다. 시기적 분포 특성으로는 홍수재해의 규모와 빈도가 연대별로는 1651~1700년대에 가장 높게 나타났고 다음으로 1601~1650년대와 1701~1750년대가 높게 나타났다. 월별로는 5~8월에 재해가 발생했고 7월에 가장 광범위한 지역에서 분포했다. 조선전기와 중기에는 주로 6, 7월에 집중해서 분포하고 조선후기에는 7, 8월에 발생빈도가 크게 증가하였다. 공간적 분포 특성으로는 홍수재해의 규모와 빈도가 조선전기에는 한성과 경기도의 양주, 양근, 광주, 가평, 고양 등의 내륙지역에서 주로 발생했다. 조선중기에는 경상도의 안동, 군위, 인동, 영산, 밀양, 양산, 사천 등과 전라도 순천, 광양, 구례, 용담, 진 안 등, 충청도의 임천, 충원, 청풍, 단양, 영춘 등의 내륙/해안지역에 분포했다. 조선후기에는 평안도의 평양, 안주 등, 함경도의 이원, 명천 등의 북부지역에서 빈도가 증가했지만 중기와 마찬가지로 경상도와 충청도, 전라도의 내륙/해안지역에서의 분포가 가장 많았다. 2. 가뭄재해는 전기와 중기에 가장 많이 발생했고 후기에는 재해의 빈도가 감소하였다. 시기적 분포특성으로 가뭄재해는 대체로 4~7월에 분포하고 있다. 조선전기의 가뭄재해는 6~7월에 빈도가 높았고, 중기에는 4~5월에 빈도가 높았으며 조선후기에는 5~6월에 빈도가 높게 나타났다. 즉 전기에는 주로 한여름에 발생했고 중기에는 봄과 초여름에 후기에는 초여름과 한여름에 주로 발생했다. 또한 가뭄의 재해는 홍수재해와는 달리 200년을 주기로 증감하는 긴 변동성이 있었다. 공간 분포특성으로 가뭄재해는 경기도 지역에서 가장 많이 발생했고 다음으로 경상도와 전라도, 충청도, 함경도에서 높게 나타났다. 또한 50년을 주기로 중부지방을 중심으로 중북부에서 중남부지역으로 다시 중남부지방에서 중북부지방으로 이동하는 경향이 있었다. 3. 조선시대 홍수와 가뭄재해의 시공간적 분포 특성을 연대별로 세분화하면 1392~1450년대는 '가뭄재해'가 높은 발생빈도를 나타냈고, 1501~1550년대는 '홍수재해'가 크게 증가하였다. 1601~1650년대는 '홍수재해와 가뭄재해'가 가장 높은 발생빈도를 보이고 공간적으로 가장 광범위하게 분포했다. 1701~1900년대는 '극심한 홍수재해'의 발생빈도가 가장 높았던 시기로 분류할 수 있다. 이를 통해 가뭄과 홍수가 교대로 나타나는 점을 파악할 수 있었다. 이는 Lim and jung(1992)의 연구에서와 같이 1900년대 이후에는 가뭄 기가 있었고 다시 그 이후에는 강수량이 증가하는 경향을 파악할 수 있었다. 따라서 이를 통해 기후변동성(가뭄→홍수→홍수/가뭄→홍수→가뭄)을 예측할 수 있다.