日本의 對中共 外交政策 決定過程分析

Abstract

本 硏究는 1978年 8月 12日 日本과 中共間에 調印된 "平和友好條約"의 締結을 둘러싼 日本의 對中共 外交政策決定過程을 分析함으로써 日本外交政策의 특질을 파악하는데 있다. 이 "平和友好條約"의 締結을 日本의 經濟利益, 安保的 要求, 國內의 政治的 考慮, 中共의 近代化政策, 中·蘇粉爭, 美國의 對極東政策등의 諸問題가 얽힌 日本에게는 아주 重要한 外交政策決定이어서 部分的인 理解보다는 全體的인 脈絡속에서 把握되어야 한다. 이러한 視角에서 日本對交政策決定過程을 分析하기 위해서는 體系理論은 매우 有用한 것으로 여겨진다. 특히 이 理論은 外交政策 決定과 聯關하여 環境變數를 重視하고 있어 外交政策을 分析하는데 있어 巨視的 分析에 有用한 準據들(Frame work)을 提示한다. 따라서 本 論文에서는 體系論的 입장을 對交政策決定過程에 導入 한 M. 브레커의 "構造化된 經驗主義"(Structured Empiricism)의 模型을 援用하여 "日·中共平和友好條約"을 둘러싼 日本外交政策의 決定過程을 體系的으로 分析해 보려고 한다. 本 論文의 構成은 序論에서 本 論文의 硏究目的, 範圍 및 方法을 說明한 뒤에 第Ⅱ章에서는, 日本이 왜 中共과 平和友好條約을 체결하게끔 되었나?하는 당시의 歷史的 背景을 고찰한다. 第Ⅲ章에서는, 外交政策決定過程과 體系의 槪念에 對한 說明과 體系接近을 國際政治에 導入하여 國際政治現象(특히 外交政策決定)을 分析하는 方法論을 제시한다. 第Ⅳ章에서는, 政策決定者들이 認識한 環境을 獨立變數로 하여 國際的 環境變數 가운데서는 四强關係(美·中·蘇·日), 日一蘇關係, 日一美關係, 日一中關係, 國內的 環境變數 가운데서는 軍事的 能力과 要求, 經濟的 能力과 要求, 政治構造와 競爭하는 엘리뜨의 要求, 利益集團의 要求등을 分析해 본다. 第Ⅴ章에서는, 決定過程을 推移함으로써 이 分析에 있어서의 從屬變數 즉 "日·中條約"을 둘러싼 日本의 對中共政策이 決定된 過 程을 分析한다. 이는 첫재 條約交涉再開決定에 따르는 幕後交涉, 둘째 福田首相의 條約締結 決斷에 따르는 事務레벨의 交涉, 세째 國田外相 訪中과 調印등으로 나누어 보았다. 第Ⅵ章에서는 日本外交政策決定過程을 分析한 결과 外交政策決定過程에 나타난 日本外交政策의 특질과 "日·中條約"이 가지는 國際政治上의 의의를 綜合해 보고자 한다.;This Thesis intends to analyze the Japanese foreign policy Decision-Making Process involved in the Sino-Japanese Peace and Friendship Treaty which was signed by Japan on August 12, 1978. It's desirable that we understand this treaty wholly in the general context rather than partially, for it is quite complicated. In this treaty are prescribed Japanese economic interests and security demand, their domestic political considerations along with chinese modernization, Sino-Soviet disputes, and for eastern policies of the U.S.A.. From this point of view, I guess, the concept of system will be very useful in analysing the decision process of Japanese foreign policy. This concept, above all, attaches so much importance to environmental variables concerning foreign policy decisions that it can provide us with nice frame-work in the course of macroscopic analysis of foreign policies. In these circumstances, I intend to analyze systematically the decision process of Japanese foreign policy with respect to Sino-Japanese Treaty by dint of Michael Brecher's "Structured Empiricism," who introduced systematic approach in studying the process of foreign policies. This treaties proceeds as follows : In the introductory part, the aim, extents and scheme are explained. In the Ⅱ chapter, the thesis will try to discuss the historical background about the process that Japan had come to a conclusion of the peace and friendship Treaty with China. In the Ⅲ chapter, the thesis suggests methodology for analyzing the phenomena of international politics (especially, foreign policy decision-making) by introducing the system approach and the explanation about the process of foreign policy decision-making and the concepts of system to the international politics. In the Ⅳ chapter, will be analyzed the independent variable in the environment which is recognized by decision-makers. The external environment variables include the interrelations between the four superpowers (U.S.A., People's Republic of China., U.S.S.R., Japan), Japanese-U.S., Japanese-Sino, and Russo-Japanese relations as well. The internal environment variables are made up of the following factors : military capability and demand, economic capability and demand, political structure and the demand of competing elites, and the demand of interest groups. In the Ⅴ chapter, dependent variable, that is the process of Japanese policy toward Sino determined about the Sino-Japanese treaty will be analyzed by undergoing the process of decision-making. For there 1) Negociation in behinder curtain according to the decision about the reopening of treaty-negociation. 2) Negociation at the official level to the resolution of conclusion of treaty by the prime minister FUKUDA 3) Foreign minister SONODA'S visit at P.R.C. and signature etc. were devided. In the final chapter, from the consequence of analyzing the process of Japanese foreign policy decision-making, this thesis will try to synthesize the characters appeared in the process of foreign policy decision making and the significance what Sino-Japanese treaty had in the international politics.