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identifier+ Ȅ D tǩ\ 1 xٳ¥ X Ͱ( \ vAn analysis of Female Labor Market variables' effect on Total Fertility by Using Time Varying Cointegrating Regression2015Y YtTŐYP YMastertMaster's ThesisThere have been many researches for testing the existence of Cointegration Relationships between Total Fertility Rate and Female Labor Market variables. This paper investigates the long run relationships among South Korea's total fertility rate, female labor participation rate and average monthly real household income through Time Varying Cointegrating Regression. The time span of the quarterly data used in this research is from 1970 to 2013. Time varying cointigrating regression method allows the estimation of the elasticity of total fertility rate on time varying female labor participation rate and average monthly real household income and how it changes depending on time variation.
The result of Unit root test suggests that South Korea's total fertility rate, female labor participation rate and average monthly real household income are I(1) variables. Also, the outcome of Johansen cointegration test suggests there is one cointigrating relationship among the data. The cointegrating regression by using FMOLS method was conducted before estimating the elasticity of fertility rate on Female labor market variables, and it suggests Female Labor Participation rate has a statistically significant coefficient of 0.16. This result shows there is a positive relationship between FLP rate and total fertility rate. On the other hand, average monthly real household income has a significant coefficient of -1.79 at 5% significant level. This suggests that there is a negative relationship between household income and total fertility rate. Finally, The results of the time varying cointegrating regression suggest the elasticity of total fertility rate on time varying female labor participation rate is decreasing and since 1996, there has been negative value on the elasticity. Also, the elasticity of total fertility rate on time varying household income is also decreasing and these two time varying exogenous variables have cointegrating relationship with total fertility according to the result of Engle-Granger's cointegration test.; l Ȅ (Time Varying Cointegrating Regression)D tǩX iĬ Ͱ( 1 xٳ¥ 8(, Ĭ Ɍݴ<\ $ 1 xٳ¥ X 0 Ĭ Pׄ 0x Ͱ( \ ƥ%X T| $. 0t Ͱ( 1 xٳ¥ X Ȅ Ĭ ŀ| XՔ )X l ιX̹ m pt0| XՔ $| tǩX Ͱ( 1 xٳ¥ X Ȅ ĬX 0x T| \ @ . 0| l <\ XՔ xٳ¥ \ iĬ Ͱ(X %1D X Pׄ 0| xٳ¥ Ͱ( Ť ƥD XΔ LDଐ .
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